The Effects of Crude Oil Prices, Exchange Rates, and Inflation on the Level of Investment in Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47654/v28y2024i3p106-126Keywords:
Crude oil price, exchange rate, inflation, investment, ARDL modelAbstract
Purpose: The level of investment in a country can be influenced positively or negatively by factors such as crude oil prices, exchange rates, and inflation, all of which are closely tied to its economic conditions. Therefore, this study aims to examine the long-term and short-term effects and determine the contribution of crude oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on investment in Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach: Annual time series data from 1990 to 2023 were utilized to assess the effects. Accordingly, the data were analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag model, which revealed both the long-term and short-term effects.
Findings: The results obtained from the statistical analysis, carried out using ARDL and ECM-ARDL models, showed that exchange rates had a significant influence on investment in the long term. However, crude oil prices and inflation did not affect investment. The depreciation of the IDR/USD exchange rate also decreased investments. Crude oil prices and exchange rates affected investment in the short term, and were not influenced by inflation. The most significant independent variable impacting investment was the exchange rate, followed by crude oil prices and inflation. The study result is significant because it can be used as a consideration or material for policy decisions by the government. The result provides a quantitative framework that can significantly improve governmental and corporate decision-making processes under macroeconomic uncertainty. This offers a valuable tool for strategic investment planning as a core concern of Decision Sciences.
Practical implications: All the findings in this investigation hold significant policy implications for the government as decision-makers. Accordingly, government decisions related to these policy implications include taking actions such as establishing domestic crude oil price policies and implementing government monetary and fiscal measures to stabilize exchange rates and control inflation, which were considered crucial steps for promoting investment.
Originality/value: This study represents the initial empirical investigation examining the long and short-term influences of the above factors on investment in Indonesia because, based on observation, a similar investigation has not been carried out in Indonesia. Furthermore, it presents a ranking of the contributions of each independent variable (crude oil price, exchange rate, and inflation) to investment, addressing a gap that has not been covered in previous explorations.
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